Published on Thu, Nov 24, 2011 at 10:30 | Source : Moneycontrol.com
Updated at Thu, Nov 24, 2011 at 19:51
India Forex has come out with its report on currencies
EUR/USD: EUR is currently trading at 1.3375 levels. Euro weakened vs. the US Dollar and GBP after surprisingly Germany received only 65% bids for bunds at a bond auction yesterday, adding to concern EU debt crisis is driving Investors away from Euro assets. Looking ahead German Ifo Business Climate data is expected weak.. Support is seen at around 1.3300 levels and resistance is seen at around 1.3577 levels. EUR/INR is at 69.87 levels. Exporters and traders have already been suggested to cover short to medium term exposure between 1.37-1.40 levels in EUR/USD leg only while Importers can cover exposure at 67-68 levels and below. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 69.40 and 70.25 levels for today. Short Term: Bearish Medium Term Bearish. Target 70 and 1.3500 achieved. Exporters can look at covers at 69-70 levels.
GBP/USD: GBP is currently trading at 1.5550 levels. The cable is weak vs. the US Dollar amid risk aversion in the financial market but rallied vs. the Euro as worsening EU economic outlook is increasing the demand for the cable and the UK Gilts in the region. Looking ahead Revised GDP q/q data is expected neutral and Prelim Business Investment q/q data is expected weak today. Support is seen at around 1.5500 levels and strong resistance is seen at 1.5624 levels (21 days 4 hrly EMA). GBP/INR is at 81.22. GBP/INR is likely to trade in the range of 80.90 and 81.50 levels today. GBP/INR may not fall much due to weakening rupee. Maintain short term Bearish and Medium Term Bearish. Target 1.5500 levels achieved. Exporters can look at covers at current levels partially.
USD/JPY: Yen is currently trading at 77.06. Support is seen at around 76.30 levels while resistance is seen at 77.51 levels (100 days daily EMA).
Outlook: Short Term slight Bearish and Medium Term: Maintain bearish for the pair. Next target 76 again.
AUD/USD: The commodity currency is currently trading at 0.9740 levels. Downside trajectory continues for this high yield-ing currency amid continuing risk aversion in the market although demands for Australian bonds have increased further after only 65% subscription in the German bunds. Support is seen at around 0.9660 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9828 levels (21 days 4hrly EMA). Exporters have already been suggested to book covers at 1.0400 and now Importers can start cover-ing below 0.9700-0.9800 levels. Short Term: Bearish Medium Term: Bearish. Target: 1.0 achieved. Next target 9500.
Oil: Oil is currently trading at 96.20 levels. Oil slide continues on speculation Oil demand is likely to falter on weaker German bund subscription in auction yesterday, indicating worsening EU debt situation. Support is seen at around 95.53 levels while strong resistance is seen at 97.66 levels (21 and 55 days 4 hrly EMA). Outlook: Short term bullish and medium term bearish. Target 90 levels again. Look at shorts at stiff resistances for medium term.
Gold: Gold is currently trading at 1691.63 levels. Gold weakened erasing yesterday’s gains as fears that the euro zone's sov-ereign debt crisis was worsening prompted investors to sell their gold positions to raise liquidity and cover losses elsewhere. A strong recession is also likely to hit the gold prices strongly. Support is seen at around 1636.21 levels and resistance is seen at 1722.13 levels (55 days daily EMA). As suggested at 1800 Stay away from longs until we see significant corrections. Look at Initiating shorts at good resistances. Outlook stays neutral in the range of 1600 - 1750 with slight bearish bias. Look at shorts.
Dollar Index: DI is currently trading at 78.85 and made a high of 78.51 today. Flight to safety in US Dollar continues as Investors are cautious on the EU weak outlook and the risk of contagion spreading from EU to other parts of the financial world. Support is seen at around 78.00 levels and resistance is seen at around 79.00 levels. Short term and Medium Term: Bullish. Target 79 achieved.
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